Ray Peat's Age Of Death
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@Truth not all of the people born in the same year have died yet. I guess you explain my last question
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I assume the statement referred to the assumed probability of death for his year of birth and not the average of all deaths (which - like you said - could only be calculated when all people of a cohort have died).
Life insurance companies for example use probabilities for future life expectancy. So it's a statistical value and not a statement about what happened in reality.
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@Luke hate to say it but no, he shared the source. it wasn't probabilistic. if you think about it, a probabilistic estimate concluding such a thing would be an absurd outlier
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@brad is it moral policing too much to push back on posts like these? I mean, the question is valid, in which the OP is curious how can an average be determined if not all people have passed, but the manner is so derogatory and offensive.
@haidut_retard
Im cautious to engage with you because you seem like a very inflammatory person, but the topic does pique my interest. When I think back to my statistics courses, you can take an average by looking at either the mean or median. Often times, such as when studying income data, the median is a better way to analyze the data because it is not sensitive to gross outliers. In theory then, you could then use the median measure to analyze all people born in Peat’s given year, and when 50% of them have passed away you could say that anyone who is still alive has passed the average.You wouldn’t be able to take a mean measure however until everyone who was born in Peat’s given year had passed away though.
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Slightly off topic, but another method could be to use a truncated mean, where you ignore lets say the 5% outliers on both sides. So you wouldn't count the infants and young children who died and also people who get very old. This way you could calculate a mean if only 5% of a given year of birth are still alive.
Since the bottom 5% would be further away from the "real" mean than the top 5%, this would of course be somewhat skewed. But I think it would be a pretty realistic value for a "normal" person and closer to the median.
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I think it’s spot on the topic. In either case, I think one can accurately say if someone has passed the average while there are still people alive from their given birth year.
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@haidut_retard Do you know what sources Georgi Haidut was referring to, do you have these sources to see how many people born the same year as Ray are dead, or still alive?
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@Truth said in Ray Peat's Age Of Death:
@haidut_retard Do you know what sources Georgi Haidut was referring to, do you have these sources to see how many people born the same year as Ray are dead, or still alive?
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2012/lr5a3.html
https://u.demog.berkeley.edu/~andrew/1918/figure2.html
One has to take into account WHEN Ray was born and the conditions under which he lived. It is easy to forget that the 75+ life expectancy is something very recent...and it is now again dropping after rising for more than 50 years. People born in the early 20th century had a relatively rough life. The peak of the Western world was arguably in the late 1950s and early 1960s and I suspect people born in the 1955-1965 period would have the longest average lifespan since economic conditions declined afterwards and we are now already seeing this play out in real life with the youngest people being at the highest risk for strokes. Same for CVD, cancer, etc.
Anyways, there are various sources on life expectancy one can find, but here are two that seem to be widely cited. According to them, the life expectancy for a male born in 1937 (Ray's birth year) was just 58 years! So, according to those stats, Ray lived 50% longer than expected, which is quite an accomplishment. Moreover, the standard deviation for life expectancy in the US is currently about 15. So, using that metric Ray lived ~2 standard deviations longer than expected, and that is very unlikely to happen by chance. In addition,, the standard deviation in the early 20th century was much lower - in the 8-10 year range - which would make Ray exceed his expected life expectancy by 3 or more standard deviations and that is solid evidence of the person doing something that increased lifespan. For comparison, an equivalent feat using the current male life expectancy of 77 years and a standard deviation of 15, would mean somebody who died at the age of 107. Not so bad now, is it?
@haidut&
I think it stems from the ideas people have nowadays that life expectancy should be in the late 70s or even higher, when in fact it very much depends on when the person was born. Based on widely accepted actuarial data, Ray outlived his expected lifespan by 50%! And more impressively, that was 2-3 standard deviations longer than the projected lifespan for somebody born in 1937, which is very strong evidence that whatever he did in regards to diet, lifestyle, supplements, etc was working. @haidut
And the worst part of the picking on him is that he did not actually die early. He exceeded his expected lifespan by 50%! @haidut
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haidut retard
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@jwayne said in Ray Peat's Age Of Death:
These life expectancies look like they address the issue that @haidut_retard was worried about, since more recent years would have comically low life expectancies if they were averages of everyone who had died, as opposed to some sort of forecast.
@jwayne said in Ray Peat's Age Of Death:
I think the "At age 65" column here is the most informative piece to look at. It removes the downward bias of infant mortality, early deaths from infection, etc. You can see that the the average additional years lived after 65 for men increases slowly over time. The typical 65 yr old from 1940 would live till about 77. So Peat certainly lived longer than the average man from his generation, by quite a bit. If we add legitimate under 65 (i.e. fatal heart attack at 50, stroke at 60, etc.) it would be even more apparent.
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@brad Can you edit posts?
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For Peats age cohort, the life expectancy is 60ish (at birth). Peat lived to just shy of 90 years. This means he outlived the expectations by just under 50% or more than two decades.
It may not be the best metric to use, but based on the data Haidut shared his statement doesn’t seem to imply he’s “retarded” (well to a rational person I guess).
I think Haidut’s statement may have been misconstrued. although I don’t think he used actuarial terminology completely accurately in the RPF - having said this and no hate to you - your understanding of average age at death vs outliving the average person in a cohort vs life expectancy seems limited - judging from your questions in this thread. It might be helpful to not judge him on something that you don’t comprehend.
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@haidut_retard Haidut lives very high stress life to my knowledge. Multiple jobs, kids and running a supplement company. It would explain why he looks old and is overweight. He is clearly a very smart guy, I have only listened to a few interviews of his and I already have that impression.
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@haidut_retard This is by far your most obvious profile, Charlie.
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@Comstock You should be able to edit your own posts
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@Runenight201 I’m going to move this post to the junkyard. There’s nothing that crosses the line into violent or illegal so I won’t delete or ban for the time being. I also don’t encourage people to give this person the attention they so clearly crave.
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@Kvothe you beat me to the punch
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@Buckian said in Ray Peat's Age Of Death:
For Peats age cohort, the life expectancy is 60ish (at birth). Peat lived to just shy of 90 years. This means he outlived the expectations by just under 50% or more than two decades.
It may not be the best metric to use, but based on the data Haidut shared his statement doesn’t seem to imply he’s “retarded” (well to a rational person I guess).
I think Haidut’s statement may have been misconstrued. although I don’t think he used actuarial terminology completely accurately in the RPF - having said this and no hate to you - your understanding of average age at death vs outliving the average person in a cohort vs life expectancy seems limited - judging from your questions in this thread. It might be helpful to not judge him on something that you don’t comprehend.
it's cope
ray peat talked shit on immortality and lived a meager 86 years of age, less than both of my grandfathers
assuming a constant mortality across time is retarded when the current mean's already higher@Orkneyman_ said in Ray Peat's Age Of Death:
@haidut_retard Haidut lives very high stress life to my knowledge. Multiple jobs, kids and running a supplement company. It would explain why he looks old and is overweight. He is clearly a very smart guy, I have only listened to a few interviews of his and I already have that impression.
it's cope. his 'job' is to have his bulgarian friends illegally ship medicine, for a multiple of the price they paid for it. working one job and having a family doesn't make you fat and overweight. shit genetics and a poor diet are the real cause
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@brad a jew running a board defending marxist filth. is anybody surprised
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@haidut_retard Italian*
