Ray Peat's Age Of Death
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Slightly off topic, but another method could be to use a truncated mean, where you ignore lets say the 5% outliers on both sides. So you wouldn't count the infants and young children who died and also people who get very old. This way you could calculate a mean if only 5% of a given year of birth are still alive.
Since the bottom 5% would be further away from the "real" mean than the top 5%, this would of course be somewhat skewed. But I think it would be a pretty realistic value for a "normal" person and closer to the median.
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I think it’s spot on the topic. In either case, I think one can accurately say if someone has passed the average while there are still people alive from their given birth year.
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@haidut_retard Do you know what sources Georgi Haidut was referring to, do you have these sources to see how many people born the same year as Ray are dead, or still alive?
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@Truth said in Ray Peat's Age Of Death:
@haidut_retard Do you know what sources Georgi Haidut was referring to, do you have these sources to see how many people born the same year as Ray are dead, or still alive?
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2012/lr5a3.html
https://u.demog.berkeley.edu/~andrew/1918/figure2.html
One has to take into account WHEN Ray was born and the conditions under which he lived. It is easy to forget that the 75+ life expectancy is something very recent...and it is now again dropping after rising for more than 50 years. People born in the early 20th century had a relatively rough life. The peak of the Western world was arguably in the late 1950s and early 1960s and I suspect people born in the 1955-1965 period would have the longest average lifespan since economic conditions declined afterwards and we are now already seeing this play out in real life with the youngest people being at the highest risk for strokes. Same for CVD, cancer, etc.
Anyways, there are various sources on life expectancy one can find, but here are two that seem to be widely cited. According to them, the life expectancy for a male born in 1937 (Ray's birth year) was just 58 years! So, according to those stats, Ray lived 50% longer than expected, which is quite an accomplishment. Moreover, the standard deviation for life expectancy in the US is currently about 15. So, using that metric Ray lived ~2 standard deviations longer than expected, and that is very unlikely to happen by chance. In addition,, the standard deviation in the early 20th century was much lower - in the 8-10 year range - which would make Ray exceed his expected life expectancy by 3 or more standard deviations and that is solid evidence of the person doing something that increased lifespan. For comparison, an equivalent feat using the current male life expectancy of 77 years and a standard deviation of 15, would mean somebody who died at the age of 107. Not so bad now, is it?
@haidut&
I think it stems from the ideas people have nowadays that life expectancy should be in the late 70s or even higher, when in fact it very much depends on when the person was born. Based on widely accepted actuarial data, Ray outlived his expected lifespan by 50%! And more impressively, that was 2-3 standard deviations longer than the projected lifespan for somebody born in 1937, which is very strong evidence that whatever he did in regards to diet, lifestyle, supplements, etc was working. @haidut
And the worst part of the picking on him is that he did not actually die early. He exceeded his expected lifespan by 50%! @haidut
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haidut retard
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@jwayne said in Ray Peat's Age Of Death:
These life expectancies look like they address the issue that @haidut_retard was worried about, since more recent years would have comically low life expectancies if they were averages of everyone who had died, as opposed to some sort of forecast.
@jwayne said in Ray Peat's Age Of Death:
I think the "At age 65" column here is the most informative piece to look at. It removes the downward bias of infant mortality, early deaths from infection, etc. You can see that the the average additional years lived after 65 for men increases slowly over time. The typical 65 yr old from 1940 would live till about 77. So Peat certainly lived longer than the average man from his generation, by quite a bit. If we add legitimate under 65 (i.e. fatal heart attack at 50, stroke at 60, etc.) it would be even more apparent.
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@brad Can you edit posts?
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For Peats age cohort, the life expectancy is 60ish (at birth). Peat lived to just shy of 90 years. This means he outlived the expectations by just under 50% or more than two decades.
It may not be the best metric to use, but based on the data Haidut shared his statement doesn’t seem to imply he’s “retarded” (well to a rational person I guess).
I think Haidut’s statement may have been misconstrued. although I don’t think he used actuarial terminology completely accurately in the RPF - having said this and no hate to you - your understanding of average age at death vs outliving the average person in a cohort vs life expectancy seems limited - judging from your questions in this thread. It might be helpful to not judge him on something that you don’t comprehend.
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@haidut_retard Haidut lives very high stress life to my knowledge. Multiple jobs, kids and running a supplement company. It would explain why he looks old and is overweight. He is clearly a very smart guy, I have only listened to a few interviews of his and I already have that impression.
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@haidut_retard This is by far your most obvious profile, Charlie.
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@Comstock You should be able to edit your own posts
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@Runenight201 I’m going to move this post to the junkyard. There’s nothing that crosses the line into violent or illegal so I won’t delete or ban for the time being. I also don’t encourage people to give this person the attention they so clearly crave.
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@Kvothe you beat me to the punch
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@Buckian said in Ray Peat's Age Of Death:
For Peats age cohort, the life expectancy is 60ish (at birth). Peat lived to just shy of 90 years. This means he outlived the expectations by just under 50% or more than two decades.
It may not be the best metric to use, but based on the data Haidut shared his statement doesn’t seem to imply he’s “retarded” (well to a rational person I guess).
I think Haidut’s statement may have been misconstrued. although I don’t think he used actuarial terminology completely accurately in the RPF - having said this and no hate to you - your understanding of average age at death vs outliving the average person in a cohort vs life expectancy seems limited - judging from your questions in this thread. It might be helpful to not judge him on something that you don’t comprehend.
it's cope
ray peat talked shit on immortality and lived a meager 86 years of age, less than both of my grandfathers
assuming a constant mortality across time is retarded when the current mean's already higher@Orkneyman_ said in Ray Peat's Age Of Death:
@haidut_retard Haidut lives very high stress life to my knowledge. Multiple jobs, kids and running a supplement company. It would explain why he looks old and is overweight. He is clearly a very smart guy, I have only listened to a few interviews of his and I already have that impression.
it's cope. his 'job' is to have his bulgarian friends illegally ship medicine, for a multiple of the price they paid for it. working one job and having a family doesn't make you fat and overweight. shit genetics and a poor diet are the real cause
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@brad a jew running a board defending marxist filth. is anybody surprised
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@haidut_retard Italian*
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@haidut_retard mate maybe stay in school
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B brad moved this topic from Bioenergetics Discussion on
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@brad said in Ray Peat's Age Of Death:
@haidut_retard Italian*
i'm sure that's how you identify
@insufferable said in Ray Peat's Age Of Death:
- A free speech zone should accept and applaud an aggressive style, nothing is more important than truth.
- lots of old people in my family lived longer than ray. While Ray was still alive, do you think any hardcore peater thought ray would die at 86? Of course not. Maybe I'm making this up, but I think I remember seeing posts like "when ray is 130, the mainstream will start taking notice!" Furthermore, peating implies that it can reverse damage so why would ray's 1940's childhood damage make him more susceptible to early death?
- i think people live longer today because pharma can "stretch" your lifespan (with a horrible quality of life) - old people are living decades with drug-managed degenerative conditions, while in the past they would have died before getting to that point. Since I doubt Ray was on any pharma and stayed very energetic and sharp up until quite close to the end, I think his "un-drugged and high quality-of-life lifespan" is definitely a lot longer than average for any group. But it is not super exceptional, which IS what many people were expecting.
- peating endorses a mental state of joyful calm and a physical state of visibly glowing vitality. These things to be achievable through the biological means outlined by Ray. Haidut simply does not look or sound like that, he sometimes gives the impression of a man that drank a pot of coffee and then got stuck in traffic for an hour. Probably it's due to being a small business owner which is a very distressing occupation. (ive never seen an unstressed small businessman - haidut fits the pattern ive seen, and experienced myself) This is understandable, but one must note that peating is apparently not able to completely block these problems.
- haidut is doing difficult and valuable things and putting himself out in public for the world to judge, so I give him credit. I am not hating, only stating what I perceive to be obviously true and what should be considered, lest cults form.
- i think peating is great but people overestimate what it can accomplish and then get disillusioned. I am not going to live to 150.
i'm chilling out with a lot of them in telegram groups, they're fine
one dude has 2 kids he's buff af
not as buff as me but still, buff@Buckian said in Ray Peat's Age Of Death:
@haidut_retard mate maybe stay in school
still in it come at me bruv
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This is such a cope
ray peat looked very young
Also not DYING IN OLD AGE = you need some luck that you don"t get a weird infection or dissease , pure luck
Also raypeat did not even follow his own raypeat rules, i can give you many examples
